America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
On June 17, 2026, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2026. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter“: The overall Index increased by two points from last quarter to 91, its highest reading since Q4 2024 and …
On Wednesday, June 17, 2026 FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh gave the scheduled June 2026 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Kevin Warsh’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of June …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of June 12, 2026, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2026:Q1). The last value (as of the June 11, 2026 update) is $182.979889 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The May 2026 NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 9, 2026. The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by .6 points to 95.3. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.6 points in May to 95.3, remaining below its 52-year …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …